And then the news broke that the Scottish Government's A96 Corridor Review had concluded that "Overall, the Refined Package performs better than Full Dualling in terms of the appraisal criteria, particularly with respect to the impact on the environment..."
The "Refined Package" is the recommendation resulting from the analysis of the effects of various options for improving transport links between Inverness and Aberdeen, covering all forms of transport. The Scottish Government's long-term wish is to fully dual the A96. However, the review concluded that at present it is more important to improve both road and rail links.
The Refined Package includes eight options:
The cost estimate for the projects included in the Refined Package are £500m-£1000m as opposed to a probable £5000m for full dualling. The positive recommendations for the railway are:
Three distinct improvements to the railway between Aberdeen and Inverness - linespeed improvements to reduce end-to-end journey times to two hours (currently approximately two hours and 25 minutes), the provision of passing loops to enable a more frequent passenger service and the provision of freight facilities to enable intermodal freight growth. These rail interventions would:
It is informative to compare the 2024 A96 Corridor Review with the 2008 Strategic Transport Projects Review recommendations. These include:
19 - RAIL SERVICE ENHANCEMENTS BETWEEN ABERDEEN AND INVERNESS
Intervention description:
A.187 This intervention supports the objectives to reduce journey time and increase opportunities to travel, particularly by public transport, between Aberdeen and Inverness. The improvements to the railway between Aberdeen and Inverness would allow:
A.188 Phase 1 would involve the introduction of new loops in the area and line speed improvements. Phase 2 would involve more comprehensive improvements to line speed, journey times and the provision of some dual tracking on approaches to Inverness and Aberdeen. Development of this intervention will also give consideration to the option of a station at Kintore.
We hope that the A96 Corridor Review will result in the Scottish Government completing its 2008 plans by building on what was achieved in 2019-20 with the 16 miles of double-tracking and the new station at Kintore, along with the opening of Inverness Airport station in 2023.
However, in some of the press this good news for rail was completely sidelined and, in the case of the Press and Journal on 29 November, turned into a negative by the avalanche of hyperbole quoted from politicians and the headline "A96 review opposes full dualling of deadly road", with a subheading "Anger over more delays as report recommends bypasses at Elgin and Keith and rail upgrades".
To describe the A96 as a "deadly road" is to completely ignore the actual statistics. When considering the danger a road - or rather its drivers - represents, the only meaningful statistic is deaths and serious injuries per vehicle mile driven. Simply giving a total number of deaths for a complete road, regardless of its length or traffic density, distorts the reality. I live in a road which is only a couple of hundred yards long. Using the statistics newspapers and road campaigners use, if an average of three people were killed in crashes every year on my road it would still be regarded as less dangerous than a 200 mile long A-road with four deaths per year. I think I might feel differently!
The A96 does not feature anywhere near the top of the list of roads in Scotland with the greatest number of deaths and serious injuries per vehicle mile driven. The only collection of data using this criterion which I could find online is from the surprising source of the Regtransfers website which published a list of the 50 most dangerous roads in the UK in 2018. Top of the list, the A1010, has a figure of 12.70 per 1 million vehicle-miles driven. The only Scottish roads in this list were the A68 (partly in England), A7, A82, A71 with figures ranging from 1.82 for the A71 to 3.1 for the A7. The A9 and A96 do not appear in the list.
No-one considers any road deaths to be acceptable, but there simply isn't enough money to make it impossible for accidents to happen.
The anger shown by the reactions of various politicians to the review's publication illustrates the problem we have as rail campaigners - few politicians seem to share our belief that transferring as much traffic as possible to rail, by making it as fast, reliable and comfortable as possible for passengers, and convenient, affordable and reliable for freight, is the way forward. It's hard to imagine reactions such as "disgraceful", "sham and a disgrace", "been met with white fury", "ultimate betrayal of my constituents" ever being used about the postponing of a rail project.
We can only hope that eventually a more responsible attitude takes hold and money is found to bring the Highland railways up to the required standard. The A96 Corridor Review may mark the beginning of such a change.